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DJT Stock Surges Ahead of Election While Other SPACs Struggle: Market Trends Explained

Hannah Perry | October 25, 2024

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DJT Soars While Other SPAC Stocks Struggle: A Closer Look at the Trends

The stock market has witnessed a fascinating phenomenon with the rise and fall of Special-Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). Among the notable mentions, shares of the Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. (commonly referred to as DJT) have experienced a remarkable rally leading up to the upcoming U.S. presidential election. In stark contrast, many SPAC stocks have failed to achieve similar success, showcasing an uneven landscape in the post-SPAC era.

The SPAC Boom and Its Aftermath

In the years 2020 and 2021, SPACs gained immense popularity as a method for companies to go public. These “blank-check” companies, designed to streamline the merger process with private firms, accounted for over half of all U.S. IPOs during this timeframe. According to SPAC Analytics, there were 248 SPAC mergers in 2020, comprising around 55% of total IPOs, while 2021 saw an increase with 613 SPAC deals making up 63% of the market.

Year SPAC IPOs Total U.S. IPOs SPAC %
2024 38 99 38%
2023 31 72 43%
2022 86 118 73%
2021 613 968 63%
2020 248 450 55%
2019 59 213 28%
2018 46 225 20%
2017 34 189 18%
2016 13 111 12%
2015 20 173 12%
2014 12 258 5%
2013 10 220 5%

However, the surge in SPACs was not sustainable, as the market cooled dramatically in 2022. The U.S. IPO landscape saw a sharp decline, with the total number of IPOs dropping to 118, maintaining 73% of the deals as SPAC transactions. By 2023 and 2024, SPAC mergers fell back to pre-2020 levels as other IPOs remained below historical averages.

The Rise and Fall of DJT

DJT, the stock of Trump Media, hit an intraday low of $11.75 on September 24, 2023, but saw a meteoric rise, tripling in value to $36.77 by October 23. While this stock has exhibited significant volatility, it is essential to recognize the juxtaposition between DJT’s performance and that of other SPAC stocks around it.

The IPOX SPAC Index, which measures the performance of publicly traded SPACs and their mergers, has displayed a lackluster return, and its annualized total return currently sits at just 3.4%. This pales in comparison to the S&P 500’s total returns of 89.4% over the same period.

Challenges Facing De-SPAC Companies

The challenges facing de-SPAC companies have resulted in dismal stock performance. As finance professor Jay R. Ritter pointed out, many SPAC deals resulted in overvalued companies being brought to market. By the end of 2021, the SPAC landscape began changing, with increased prevalence of lower-quality firms emerging from SPAC mergers. Companies transitioning from private to public often lacked profitability, leading to poor market performance.

Moreover, a number of firms that went public via SPACs have disappointed investors. For instance, while Trump Media reported a loss of $16.4 million in Q2 2023 on revenues of just $837,000, this was a slight improvement compared to a staggering loss of $327.6 million in the previous quarter.

The Election Factor

DJT’s fortunes have been significantly influenced by the political landscape due to its ties to former President Donald Trump. Events such as assassination attempts and election debates have seen DJT stocks jump or fall in value, capturing the attention of traders who seem to view it as a proxy for election bets. This ties the stock’s performance to fluctuating political sentiments rather than solely its business fundamentals.

As the election date approaches on November 5, 2023, the interplay between market dynamics and Trump’s political journey is poised to create further volatility for DJT stocks. The outcome of the election could greatly influence how DJT performs compared to its struggling SPAC counterparts.

Conclusion

The SPAC phenomenon serves as a cautionary tale within the finance realm. With DJT showcasing an unpredictable yet rallying trend, it stands in stark contrast to many other SPAC stocks that continue to trail poorly. Investors must tread carefully, weighing not only the immediate effects of the upcoming election but also the inherent risks associated with SPAC mergers.