Silver Squeeze 2.0: Will Silver Price See the Biggest Technical Breakout in Modern Market History?

Silver is back in the spotlight, captivating the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. After a remarkable gain of over 40% in the past 12 months, the price of silver has soared above $34 an ounce. This resurgence has catalyzed a grassroots movement dubbed “Silver Squeeze 2.0,” which calls for a coordinated buy of physical silver on March 31, aiming to challenge what proponents allege to be a “manipulated” paper market. As this online campaign gains traction across social media platforms like X, many are drawing parallels to the 2021 Reddit-driven silver squeeze, but with important differences in the current market conditions.

A Different Set of Circumstances

The enthusiasm surrounding Silver Squeeze 2.0 is not solely driven by sentiment; rather, it is underpinned by significant shifts in supply dynamics. Peter Krauth, author of The Great Silver Bull and editor of Silver Stock Investor, pointed out that approximately 223 million ounces of silver are currently net short, amounting to about 25% of the annual mine supply. “If you look at the ratio of paper silver to physical silver, we’re seeing something like 378 to 1—well beyond any other futures market for metals,” explained Krauth in an interview with Kitco News.

In 2021, the retail investor movement primarily driven through Reddit’s WallStreetBets community led to dramatic spikes in silver prices and volumes traded via the SLV ETF, increasing ninefold. At that time, silver jumped from $25 to $29.50, with average silver stocks climbing by 30 to 40% in just three days. While market momentum eventually fizzled due to a lack of sustained buying and fundamental demand, Krauth argues that the current market scenario has unique attributes that could lead to a sustained rally. “Unless you see a fundamental bump in demand, especially from industrial buyers, I think the rally might not last. But there’s less silver available for investment now than there was 10 years ago, which could really help drive a bigger and more sustained squeeze,” he noted.

The Rising Industrial Demand

One of the critical differences today is that industrial demand for silver now accounts for about 60% of annual usage, compared to just 50% a decade ago. Sectors such as solar energy, electronics, and electric vehicles have significantly driven this increase, making industrial demand a vital factor in the silver market’s future. The Silver Institute indicates that silver has experienced four consecutive years of global supply deficits, averaging around 200 million ounces annually. This shortage has not been offset by new mine supply but instead has been supplemented by drawing down inventories from major exchange platforms like the LBMA and COMEX.

Supply Pressures Continue to Mount

Krauth pointed out that LBMA inventories have dwindled by 40 to 50% over the past few years. “A lot of that metal is moving into private vaults in New York,” he said, especially as concerns mount over potential U.S. tariffs on imported metals. This impending shift prompted a rush of silver moving from London to the U.S. ahead of the anticipated April 2 announcement date regarding possible new trade measures. The uncertainty fueled by existing Trump tariffs on metal imports adds another layer of complexity to the silver market.

Can Silver Surpass Historical Highs?

Despite its recent successes, silver remains the only major metal still trading below its 1980 all-time high. Krauth believes a decisive break above $50 could ignite a rally unlike any seen before, with potential price targets soaring as high as $70, $80, or even $100 in rapid succession. He shares a bold prediction, stating, “I think we could probably see $40 in the second half of this year, and $50 next year,” replicating sentiments expressed by other industry voices.

Retail premiums persist at elevated levels, and while demand at bullion dealers appears to be moderating, institutional interest in silver is notably on the rise. “Some dealers are actually going to Costco to get their silver,” Krauth observed, highlighting the shifting dynamics in the distribution of silver. For new investors or those contemplating entry into the silver market, Krauth advises, “If someone doesn’t own silver, at least buy a little now. If you want a larger allocation, do it in tranches. Maybe buy some now, and if there’s a dip, add more.”

What Lies Ahead?

As March 31 approaches, it remains uncertain whether this grassroots movement will serve as a catalyst for silver prices. Nonetheless, it is apparent that silver is firmly embedded in broader discussions surrounding inflation, de-dollarization, and market manipulation. Krauth emphasizes that “this isn’t just about retail investors anymore. It’s about real tightness in the market,” which points to a potentially bullish outlook for silver in the coming months.

For ongoing updates on #SilverSqueeze 2.0 and insights regarding the movement, follow developments to see how this grassroots effort will impact the silver market.

Why Copper May Be More Important to the U.S. Economy Than Oil

As the U.S. grapples with the impact of tariffs on copper imports, prices for this critical metal are soaring to unprecedented heights. Analysts are now positioning copper as a primary driver of economic growth, even claiming that it could be more vital to the U.S. economy than oil.

The Rising Importance of Copper

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, stated that “Copper is the new crude oil,” reflecting its ubiquitous need across various sectors — from construction and automotive to electronics and telecommunications. Flynn articulated a concern over the metal’s scarcity, noting, “Everybody needs it, and we probably don’t have enough of it.”

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey emphasizes the severity of the supply-demand imbalance, revealing that domestic copper supplies have been outpaced by consumption for over five years. Between 2019 and 2023, the U.S. imported over 44% of its average annual refined copper usage, totaling approximately 1.7 million metric tons, as reported by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The Economic Ramifications of Tariffs

In light of copper’s rising importance, President Donald Trump has directed the commerce secretary to investigate the national security implications of copper imports. This could lead to tariffs aimed at bolstering domestic production. However, Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, expressed skepticism regarding the rationale behind imposing tariffs on an already scarce resource. He pointed out that the U.S. is unlikely to ever produce enough copper domestically to meet consumption needs.

As a result of heightened demand and geopolitical considerations, copper prices reached record levels recently, with the U.S. benchmark for May’s contract on Comex reaching $5.374 a pound. The London Metal Exchange also demonstrated this trend, with three-month copper contracts nearing all-time highs.

Understanding Copper’s Multifaceted Role

Copper serves as a critical material in many industries. Its conductive properties make it an essential component in electrical systems — not just for traditional uses but also for emerging technologies. For instance, Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, asserted that copper is crucial for energy creation, transmission, and storage. It fuels operational capabilities across sectors including construction, automotive, and technology.

According to the International Copper Association, a single metric ton of copper can enhance the functionality of 40 cars, power 100,000 mobile phones, and distribute electricity to 30 homes. Meanwhile, the growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and advancements in artificial intelligence are further intensifying the need for copper. For example, an average electric vehicle contains about 60 kg of copper, a significant increase compared to 24 kg in conventional gasoline-powered vehicles.

The National Security Perspective

The increasing reliance on copper for domestic energy and technological needs has compelled policymakers to consider the national security implications of importing this vital resource. Trump’s administration is exploring various methods to bolster domestic copper production, including potential tariffs and increased investments in domestic mining and refining.

Adam Estelle, president and CEO of the Copper Development Association, stated the importance of adopting an “all-of-the-above sourcing strategy,” which encompasses enhanced mining, smelting, refining, and recycling within the U.S. Estelle pointed out the need for continued trade with reliable partners to maintain an adequate supply of copper for domestic needs.

The Future of Copper

Copper’s importance extends beyond its immediate applications; it is poised to play a central role in meeting future electricity demands. Data centers, responsible for increasing electricity consumption, are projected to account for a growing share of total energy use in the coming years. This, coupled with the burgeoning EV market, spells an increasing demand trajectory for copper.

Flynn anticipates that copper prices could potentially double within the next four years if demand continues to outstrip supply. He called recent tariff discussions a crucial wake-up call about the structural undersupply of copper and its importance in achieving domestic energy and technological goals.

A Strategic Move Towards Domestic Production

The recent developments in U.S. copper policy underscore the urgency to secure domestic supplies of this essential metal. The proposed tariffs and investment strategies highlight the administration’s commitment to invigorating local production capabilities and ultimately establishing a more self-reliant industrial base.

In conclusion, as the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, copper’s role in the U.S. economy is likely to expand. By recognizing copper’s critical status in both the present and future economic frameworks, policymakers can better prepare for emerging challenges and opportunities alike.

On the Front Line of Trump’s Trade War: Rio Tinto’s New Smelter

In a significant move that highlights the ongoing trade tussle instigated by President Trump’s administration, Rio Tinto is in the process of bringing to life the first large-scale Western aluminum smelter built in over a decade. This flagship project, located in Québec’s Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, represents a strategic initiative by Rio Tinto to “future-proof” the largest hub of aluminum smelting in the Western world. With escalating trade tensions, this development could see the newly produced aluminum supply redirected to Europe, rather than traditional U.S. manufacturers, when it becomes operational next year.

The Strategic Decision Behind Rio Tinto’s AP60 Project

Approved less than two years ago, the $1.1 billion AP60 project stems from Rio Tinto’s recognition of the aging aluminum smelting operations in the region. Some of these plants faced impending closures, even as the demand for aluminum in North America was on the rise. Aluminum ranks among the most versatile and critical materials, finding applications in everything from beverage cans to advanced military equipment.

Initially, foreign-made aluminum became an early target for the Trump administration’s trade policies, justifying the introduction of tariffs on the basis of protecting U.S. producers from what they labeled as a global oversupply. Although President Trump exempted Canada from a 10% tariff on aluminum imports initially, he later suggested that such exemptions create loopholes that countries like China might exploit. As Canada constitutes nearly 60% of aluminum imports into the U.S., its significance in the trade dynamics is substantial.

The Gamble of Investment amid Trade Uncertainty

Rio Tinto’s adoption of the AP60 project seemingly carries an element of risk, particularly in light of the recent 25% tariff imposed on aluminum imports. This ambitious project is the company’s most significant investment in the aluminum sector since a multibillion-dollar modernization of the Kitimat smelter in British Columbia in 2011, which exceeded its forecasted budget. Architects of the AP60 smelter have intensified efforts towards efficiency by utilizing advanced electrolysis technology aimed at reducing carbon emissions in aluminum production, making the smelter not just efficient but also environmentally friendly.

The projected annual capacity of the new facility will escalate to approximately 220,000 metric tons—from 60,000 tons currently—enough to satisfy the demand for about 400,000 electric cars yearly. While skeptics questioned the necessity of increasing aluminum production given existing market conditions, Rio Tinto contends that their new smelter could deliver high-quality, low-carbon aluminum, empowering manufacturers to reduce their carbon footprints.

Competitive Landscape and Industry Challenges

The Western aluminum industry historically faced challenges posed by the rapid expansion of Chinese smelters, largely supported by government subsidies that significantly lower production costs. In stark contrast, the U.S. has not seen the construction of a new aluminum smelter in over 45 years. Comparatively, building a facility in China could cost around 40% less than in Western nations, as highlighted by Ami Shivkar from Wood Mackenzie. With Canada boasting an abundance of cheap, renewable hydropower, it remains well-positioned to provide a competitive edge over countries with higher operational energy costs.

Employment and Future Market Dynamics

Currently employing over 1,000 workers, the AP60 project is progressing swiftly, with more than half of the work already completed. However, the potential trade impacts stemming from Trump’s tariff policies are still uncertain. Rio Tinto’s CEO, Jakob Stausholm, suggested that should the need arise, the company is prepared to channel Canadian aluminum towards markets outside the U.S., particularly Europe. He remains optimistic about the company’s investment, affirming that it is both on schedule and within budget constraints, but acknowledges the importance of retaining their customer base.

Conclusion

As Rio Tinto advances the AP60 project amid a turbulent trade landscape, the company epitomizes the interplay between strategic resource investment and evolving trade policies. The outcomes of such a significant investment in the aluminum sector may influence not only Rio Tinto’s future but also the broader dynamics of North American aluminum supply and its competitive standing globally.

How China Captured the Rare-Earths Refining Market: A Challenge for the U.S.

In the global race for technological superiority, rare earth elements (REEs) have emerged as the backbone of a wide range of essential products, from smartphones to defense systems. Over the years, China has not only positioned itself as a leading supplier of these minerals but has also become the dominant player in their refining. The reality is stark: while the United States holds abundant supplies of rare earths, it remains heavily reliant on China for refining services. This dependence poses a significant challenge, especially as geopolitical tensions rise.

The U.S. Rare Earths Landscape

Historically, the United States was a powerhouse in rare-earth production. Currently, American mines supply about 12% of the world’s rare earths, mainly sourced from the Mountain Pass mine in California. Despite this, two-thirds of the rare earths extracted in the U.S. are exported to China for processing. In fact, China handles around 85% of the global rare-earth refining market, offering a complete supply chain that the U.S. lacks.

President Trump highlighted the importance of reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths, initiating talks to secure mineral rights in countries like Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, there remains a significant hurdle—processing these minerals. Even if new mineral rights are secured, the U.S. faces the conundrum of sending ores to its primary geopolitical rival for processing.

The Deindustrialization of the American Economy

The decline of U.S. refining capability is symptomatic of broader economic shifts. Over the past few decades, many industries have moved operations overseas where labor and environmental regulations are more favorable, particularly in China. This has led to a substantial decrease in the U.S.’s manufacturing capacity for critical minerals and other essential products, creating a vacuum that has ultimately favored China.

“Drill baby drill is not the right focus,” warns John Ormerod, a consultant for the rare-earth sector. The emphasis not just on extraction, but also on refining capabilities, is essential to reclaiming market share. Without investment in midstream processing—critical for transforming raw materials into usable products—the U.S. will likely remain at a disadvantage.

Efforts to Rebuild U.S. Refining Capacity

In response to growing concerns about national security and supply chain vulnerabilities, the U.S. government has begun to take steps to revitalize its rare-earth processing capabilities. Recently, the Trump administration signed an executive order aimed at streamlining permitting processes and enhancing government financing for domestic projects, including processing facilities.

Yet, the road to revitalization is fraught with challenges. Projects have often stalled due to environmental concerns and regulatory hurdles. A prime example is Lynas Rare Earths, an Australian company that received substantial Pentagon funding to establish a processing facility in Texas. Over two years later, construction has yet to start, primarily due to permitting issues linked to wastewater management.

The Path Forward

Companies like MP Materials, which oversees the Mountain Pass mine, illustrate the pivot toward domestic processing. MP Materials is gradually reducing its reliance on Chinese refining and recently announced commercial production of rare earth metals. By ramping up domestic processing capabilities, the company aims to secure a more stable supply chain, even forging an agreement with General Motors for rare-earth magnets.

China’s Expanding Dominance

China’s dominance in rare earths is not just historical but is also growing more pronounced. For example, the country’s share of the global cobalt refining market is projected to increase from 65% in 2018 to 83% by 2024, according to Darton Commodities. Additionally, the establishment of large nickel processing plants in Indonesia has solidified Chinese control over essential mineral supply chains.

Though the U.S. has begun to allocate significant funds to develop its processing facilities, these efforts may still fall short if they cannot compete economically with Chinese operations. Currently, the cost of building a refinery in China is approximately one-third that of building one in the U.S., creating substantial pressure on American firms trying to reestablish a foothold in the market.

Conclusion

As the global demand for rare earths continues to soar, the U.S. must navigate a complex landscape dominated by China. The strategic importance of these materials cannot be overstated, particularly within the defense sector. While steps are being taken to rebuild refining capabilities, significant barriers remain. For the U.S. to regain its standing in the rare-earths arena, it must prioritize investment in refining infrastructure while addressing challenges posed by environmental regulations and competition from Chinese firms. As the geopolitical chess game evolves, the U.S. must act swiftly and strategically to ensure it is not left behind in the supply chain of the future.

US Miners Eye Copper Comeback as Demand Rises

Growing Demand for Copper

The demand for copper in the United States is projected to double in the next decade. However, the nation currently lacks the production capacity needed to meet this skyrocketing demand without significant changes to existing mining regulations. In a bid to rejuvenate American mineral production, President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order aimed at increasing domestic mineral output.

A Step Towards Revitalization

“The United States possesses vast mineral resources that can create jobs, fuel prosperity, and significantly reduce our reliance on foreign nations,” the order states. It acknowledges that stringent federal regulations have hampered the nation’s mineral production capabilities, which were once robust. This executive order specifically targets priority projects focused on minerals including copper, uranium, potash, and gold—an encouraging sign for the U.S. copper industry, which finds it challenging to compete with nations that impose more lenient mining regulations.

Industry Response and Challenges

Clayton Walker, Chief Operating Officer of Copper at Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest mining company, emphasizes the necessity of opening new mines in the United States. “We’ve got to create more mines. Open up some of those resources that we have right here in the U.S. and bring them online,” he stated. Walker argues that initiating copper production is essential for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. “It all starts at the mines with that raw material,” he added.

Currently, Rio Tinto has been working for 17 years to get the Resolution Copper Mine in Arizona operational, which could potentially provide up to 20% of the nation’s copper demand. Unfortunately, the endeavor has faced numerous roadblocks such as land rights disputes and environmental concerns. Walker notes that the average time to permit a new mine in the U.S. stretches to 29 years, highlighting the need for faster processes: “We’ve got to figure out a way to bring those mines online a little faster.”

The Critical Mineral List

One potential solution for expediting the permitting process is adding copper to the list of critical minerals, defined by the Department of Energy as non-fuel minerals that are essential for energy technologies and are at high risk of supply chain disruption. Walker argues, “I think we need to make copper a critical mineral. Not having it on the list is hurting us and keeping that valuable metal from getting those resources that are needed.”

Meet the Copper Standards

The Kennecott Mine, located just west of Salt Lake City, stands as the largest open-pit mine globally, producing copper for over 120 years. It has historically provided substantial copper for significant events, including World War II, with 25% of the metal used by Allies sourced from Kennecott. However, despite this rich history, much of the mined copper in the U.S. needs to be shipped overseas for refining, contrasting sharply with other countries like China that boast over 50 copper smelters.

Nate Foster, Kennecott’s managing director, underlines the importance of the smelter as a unique asset, claiming it to be among the cleanest in the world. The U.S. currently exports over 400,000 tons of copper concentrate annually, which underscores the need to develop domestic refining capabilities.

Production Capacity and the Future

With operations running year-round, Kennecott utilizes oversized haulers to extract around 120,000 tons of copper ore yearly, accounting for 20% of the total copper produced in the U.S. After extraction, the ore is sent to the concentrator and smelter where it is processed into 99.99% pure copper plates—the highest quality available in the nation.

Tariff Considerations

In addition to increased mining output, President Trump has discussed a 25% tariff on imported copper that comprises 47% of U.S. consumption. This move could be beneficial for domestic mining operations, but it poses challenges for international companies like Rio Tinto. Walker stated, “We’re working hard with the administration to be part of that solution. If we can get [tariffs] structured the right way, I think it will benefit the domestic supply.”

Conclusion

The future of copper mining in the United States hinges on embracing regulatory changes that can streamline the permitting process and promote domestic production. With U.S. copper demand expected to soar, revitalizing the nation’s mining industry could play a crucial role in bolstering American manufacturing and reducing dependence on foreign minerals.

Should You Invest in Gold Miners or Gold Itself? An In-Depth Look at ETFs

As the allure of gold continues to rise in 2025, many investors are left wondering whether they should invest in gold miners or the gold itself. Recent trends indicate that U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track companies involved in the exploration, mining, and processing of gold are on a steep upward trajectory. The price of gold has recently shattered the key $3,000 barrier, which has sparked interest in the performance of gold mining stocks compared to physical gold and gold-related funds.

Gold Prices Surge in 2025

According to FactSet data, the price of gold (GC00) (GCJ25) has not only broken through $3,000 but has also managed to stabilize above that point. This significant price surge has positively impacted gold-focused ETFs this year. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has seen a remarkable increase of over 32% in 2025, while the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) have risen by more than 30% and 33%, respectively. In sharp contrast, traditional gold-related funds such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) have only gained around 15.5% each during the same period. This disparity raises the question of which investment vehicle offers better long-term returns.

Investment Opportunity in Gold Miners

Market analysts suggest that the underperformance of gold-mining stocks, which has traditionally mirrored the price of gold, may be shifting. Chris Mancini, a metals and mining analyst at Gabelli Asset Management, stated, “I believe the price of gold will continue to rise, though that’s a broader discussion tied to macroeconomic factors.” Economic concerns, including tariffs, trade wars, and slowing growth, are leading to expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, which could boost gold prices.

Investing in gold miners instead of gold gives investors not only exposure to the metal itself but also potential dividend income and leverage to so-called safe-haven assets. Steve Schoffstall, director of ETF product management at Sprott Asset Management, explained, “Even if gold prices remain steady, miners have a strong opportunity for a solid run.” Earnings-per-share expectations for gold miners have risen by approximately 67% for 2025 and 99% for 2026, creating what many see as a potential investment opportunity.

Risks of Investing in Gold Miners

However, potential investors should also be aware of the risks associated with investing in gold miners. As Schoffstall mentioned, there is a serious equity risk to consider. “Gold miners could be caught up in a broader market selloff,” he noted, highlighting that shareholders may experience significant variance between top and bottom performers in the mining sector—with average performance dispersion around 170% over the past five years.

Moreover, most gold mining companies, such as Newmont Corp. (NEM), do not solely operate as gold producers. Newmont also mines copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Consequently, while investing in gold mining stocks can offer potential returns, it is important to remember that these stocks may not correlate directly with gold price movements.

The Case for Active Management

To navigate these complexities, some financial experts recommend an active investment approach. The Sprott Active Gold and Silver Miners ETF (GBUG), recently launched, is an actively managed fund targeting gold and silver companies that derive at least 50% of their revenue or have a similar percentage of their assets engaged in exploring or mining these precious metals.

With an expense ratio of 89 basis points, GBUG provides an alternative to more traditional ETFs like GDX, which has an expense ratio of 51 basis points, and GLD, which is at 40 basis points. Investors may find that a focused, actively managed approach could yield more promising returns amidst an environment of rising gold prices.

Conclusion

In conclusion, whether to invest in gold miners or physical gold will depend on individual risk tolerances and investment objectives. With gold prices continuing to soar and mining stocks potentially presenting substantial upside, it may be an opportune time to consider allocating portfolios to gold-related investments. As the economic landscape remains unpredictable, the demand for gold and the performance of mining stocks may represent promising avenues for investors seeking traditional hedges against inflation and market volatility.

For further insights on market trends and portfolio strategies, stay tuned to our financial resources and newsletters tailored to help you navigate your investment journey.

Top Wall Street Firms Love 4 Strong Buy High-Yield Dividend Oil Giants

Dividend stocks are increasingly popular among investors, particularly those that offer high yields. These investments provide a consistent income stream along with the potential for significant total returns. Total return encompasses interest, capital gains, dividends, and distributions. For example, if an investor buys a stock at $20, receives a 3% dividend, and sees the stock price rise to $22 within a year, the total return amounts to 13%—10% from appreciation and 3% from dividends.

Key Market Insights

The energy sector has shown a modest 5.7% gain in 2024. Large-cap integrated oil companies are drawing attention as they consistently offer reliable high-yield dividends. The rise in energy prices can often be attributed to geopolitical tensions as well as seasonal demand variations. Additionally, experts forecast a potential 10%-15% market correction in 2025 following two years of impressive gains, with the S&P 500 climbing by 20% in each of those years. Given that these integrated oil firms are currently considered undervalued, they present an enticing opportunity for investors focused on dependable dividends. Transitioning profits from the high-growth tech sector into energy stocks may prove to be a strategic decision.

Notable High-Yield Energy Dividend Stocks

BP (NYSE: BP)

BP, the British multinational oil and gas company, boasts a 5.58% dividend. The company’s operations span several domains:

• Gas & Low Carbon Energy
• Oil Production & Operations
• Customers & Products
• Rosneft

BP is actively involved in natural gas production and trading, biofuels, as well as renewable energy projects such as wind and solar. The company is also invested in carbon capture technology and electric vehicle charging networks. Analysts at Raymond James have rated BP as “Outperform” with a price target set at $37.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron is an American multinational energy corporation yielding a 4.35% dividend. Their operations are split into the following segments:

• Upstream: Exploration, production, transportation of crude oil and natural gas, and LNG processing.
• Downstream: Refining, marketing, and transportation of petroleum products, petrochemicals, and renewable fuels.

Chevron has also announced a significant acquisition of Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) for approximately $60 billion, which is expected to close soon. Jefferies has set a price target for Chevron at $197.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)

Exxon Mobil ranks among the largest integrated oil and gas companies, offering a 3.61% dividend. The company’s international operations are diverse, covering:

• The U.S., Canada, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia/Oceania.
• Petrochemicals, lubricants, and marketing of natural gas.

Recently, Exxon acquired Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion, ensuring long-term lower-cost production. Wells Fargo has rated Exxon as “Overweight” with a price target of $135.

Shell (NYSE: SHEL)

Shell, another British multinational energy company, offers a 4.13% dividend. The structure of Shell’s operations includes:

• Integrated Gas & Upstream: Exploration, production, and trading of natural gas and LNG.
• Marketing & Chemicals: Refining, petrochemical production, and renewable energy solutions.
• Energy Solutions: Hydrogen, wind and solar energy, and electric vehicle charging services.

Shell is poised to benefit from increasing global energy demand and displays ample upside potential.

Conclusion

Large-cap energy stocks are known for their stability concerning dividends and potential for growth. As market conditions evolve, these companies may attract investors looking to generate income and diversify their portfolios.

Copper Settles Near Record High: Why It’s Not a Great Economic Indicator Anymore

As copper prices soar above $5 a pound for the first time since May, many might interpret this as a sign of economic strength. However, the reality is that the metal’s role as an economic indicator has been obscured by the ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration. Dubbed “Dr. Copper” for its ability to gauge economic health, copper’s recent price surge is primarily driven by supply concerns rather than enhanced demand.

Prices Reached New Heights

On Comex, copper futures for May settled at $5.02 a pound, marking the highest finish since May 21 of the previous year when prices peaked at $5.106. This surge represents a more than 23% climb from the beginning of 2025. The increase is noteworthy; however, analysts caution that the traditional interpretation of rising copper prices indicating economic growth may not hold true in the current climate.

Influence of Trade Policies

Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, explains that copper’s price increase is substantially influenced by supply issues tied to potential tariffs on imports. The U.S. is heavily dependent on foreign copper, with imports fulfilling around 45% of demand. Under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), copper from neighboring Canada and Mexico remains exempt from these tariffs, but ongoing investigations into the threat of copper imports to national security could lead to new trade restrictions.

Tariff Investigations and Market Uncertainty

In a recent executive order, President Trump instructed the Secretary of Commerce to investigate copper imports and proposed measures such as tariffs, export controls, or incentives to advance domestic production. This shifting landscape has contributed to the uncertainty affecting copper’s reliability as an indicative economic barometer, according to Scott-Gray.

Currency Values and Global Supply Dynamics

Another factor contributing to the spike in copper prices is the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The discrepancy between prices on the U.S.-based CME Group and the London Metal Exchange (LME) highlights supply concerns. As supply tightens in London, market participants are racing to secure their copper units. The closing price for copper on the LME recently stood at $4.436 per pound, significantly lower than the Comex price, indicating a burgeoning premium for U.S. delivery.

Long-term Prospects for Copper

Despite current market volatility and the overarching effects of trade policies, experts believe copper retains its status as a valuable economic indicator over the long haul. Scott-Gray affirms that LME copper prices provide insight into the global industrial outlook, reflecting a universally rooted demand.

Charl Malan, a senior metals and mining analyst at VanEck, concurs with this assessment, noting surprising resilience in Chinese copper demand. He cites various supply and demand factors contributing to rising prices, including the extreme shortage of mine supply, reflected in negative treatment and refining charges (TC and RC).

Investor Sentiment and Cautious Positions

Notably, copper’s speculative net positions on Comex—which indicate the difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders—remain neutral and significantly below the levels observed last May during a short squeeze. Recently, net speculative positions recorded at 14,216 are a far cry from the 75,000-plus levels seen in May 2022. This cautious investor sentiment reflects concerns regarding the potential adverse impacts of higher tariffs on global industrial health and trade.

Conclusion

While the high price of copper might suggest buoyancy in economic activity, a deeper analysis reveals that its predictive capacity as an economic indicator is hampered by geopolitical complexities and domestic trade policies. Investors and analysts alike must navigate this altered landscape with an eye toward both immediate supply concerns and long-term geopolitical dynamics. As trade policies evolve, so too may the opportunities and challenges facing not only copper but the broader industrial sector.

Junior Miners Struggle Despite Gold’s Record Highs: What Lies Ahead?

Gold prices are currently surging to unprecedented levels, recently breaching the $3,000 an ounce mark for the first time in history. While larger gold producers are basking in the glow of remarkable gains, junior mining stocks are finding it hard to gain traction. This paradox was laid bare by Luc ten Have, founder of a prominent mining advisory agency, during his discussion at the 2025 Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference held in Toronto.

The Divergence Between Major Producers and Junior Miners

In a recent interview with Kitco Mining, ten Have highlighted a growing disparity between large gold companies, whose stock prices have soared by more than 100% year-over-year, and smaller exploration firms, particularly those listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. “TSXV has been really weak, but GDX has had a strong period,” stated ten Have, emphasizing that while mid-tier miners are thriving, small juniors appear to be left out of this bullish market.

Financing Challenges That Linger for Junior Miners

At the heart of the struggle for junior miners is the ongoing challenge of securing financing. While some well-connected companies manage to attract capital, most smaller firms find themselves in dire straits. “I haven’t seen a period like this before,” said ten Have, noting that only a select few junior miners, often backed by industry stalwarts such as Pierre Lassonde, Rob McEwen, and Ross Beaty, are able to raise money with any degree of ease.

As ten Have pointed out, having high-profile sponsorship can significantly tip the scales in favor of certain companies. “You could just bet on those names – if they get in, you get in. That’s a pretty safe strategy,” he remarked. Conversely, firms lacking this elite backing face significant barriers, struggling to attract investment. Insiders’ buying activity often serves as an essential gauge of confidence. “If they don’t buy anything themselves, why should I?” ten Have questioned, indicating that insider purchases can bolster investor sentiment.

The Importance of Marketing and Storytelling

Beyond financing woes, ten Have cited poor marketing and storytelling capabilities as additional setbacks for junior mining firms. Many of these companies are managed by geologists who, while possessing deep technical expertise, often falter in articulating their vision to attract investors. “There’s a lot of companies run by geologists. Some geologists are just pure geologists – they hate the sales part,” he explained. “But you need to be quite good at telling a story.”

Without effective narrative strategies that emphasize potential successes and positive outcomes, junior miners risk remaining overlooked in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Market Cycles: A Complex Landscape

Timing the market can be a fool’s errand, especially in the mining sector, which is notorious for its cyclical nature. “Even the smart people, they always think it’s close,” remarked ten Have, referencing the unpredictable nature of market shifts. He referenced the stark realities from previous years, noting that it was still two years after 2014 before a substantial market turn was realized. Consequently, instead of attempting to time market fluctuations, ten Have advocates for focusing on high-quality companies that remain undervalued.

Looking Forward: Opportunities Await

Despite the challenges facing junior miners, ten Have remains optimistic, pointing to the significant opportunities that exist for investors capable of identifying high-quality exploration projects. “I can guarantee you there’s going to be something exciting this year,” he assured, hinting at the potential for transformational developments within the sector. “I just don’t know which one.”

As gold prices continue to rise, the gap between large producers and junior miners becomes increasingly pronounced. While financing difficulties and poor marketing strategies hinder many smaller firms, ongoing opportunities do exist for the discerning investor. The key lies in identifying gems amidst the chaos—an endeavor fraught with challenges but also ripe with potential rewards.

China’s Gold Market Sees Strong Price Growth and ETF Inflows in February

China’s gold market experienced significant price growth and record inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) throughout February, signaling a robust investment landscape amidst a recovery in jewelry demand. According to Ray Jia, Research Head for China at the World Gold Council (WGC), the momentum behind gold prices reflects various economic factors playing out in the domestic market and beyond.

Gold Price Trends in February

Gold prices continued to rise internationally during February, but the increase was particularly pronounced in China. Jia highlighted that the gold price’s relative strength in the Chinese Yuan (RMB) compared to its U.S. Dollar (USD) equivalent was influenced by a 0.5% depreciation in the RMB during the month. Although gold prices saw a dip in the latter half of February, the first half of the month saw remarkable price peaks, with the gold price refreshing records on 11 occasions in USD and six times in RMB.

“Our analysis shows that market momentum, generally lowering yields, and a weaker dollar drove gold higher,” Jia remarked. However, he cautioned that while prices surged, wholesale demand showed a seasonal decline, with gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) falling 28% month-over-month to 90 tonnes. This pattern, he noted, aligns with historical data, which typically sees a decline in February after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Wholesale Market Trends

Despite the seasonal fluctuations, Jia pointed out that the wholesale market is showing signs of weakness year-over-year, with a significant decline in annual terms. The soaring local gold price has curbed jewelry demand in tonnage, leading to stagnated buying activities among manufacturers who significantly rely on SGE withdrawals.

“The investment demand for gold remained robust, driven by heightened interest as prices rose, but it was not sufficient to balance out the weakness in the jewelry sector,” Jia added, as total withdrawals fell by 29% year-over-year in February.

Investment Demand and Record ETF Inflows

On the investment front, the figures were striking, with Chinese gold ETFs recording their largest-ever monthly inflows. Jia noted that in February, gold ETFs witnessed an influx of RMB14 billion (approximately US$1.9 billion), pushing total Assets Under Management (AUM) to RMB89 billion (around US$12 billion), marking another month-end peak.

Moreover, total ETF holdings surged by 21 tonnes to reach a record high of 131 tonnes. The impressive performance of local gold prices, particularly following the market reopen after the Chinese New Year, garnered significant investor attention. Concerns surrounding geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in relation to the Trump administration’s trade policies, may have also spurred safe-haven flows into gold investments.

Central Bank Purchases and Future Outlook

China’s central bank has continued to bolster its gold reserves, extending its gold purchases for the fourth consecutive month with a reported purchase of 5 tonnes in February. This brings China’s official gold reserves to 2,290 tonnes, the highest on record, which accounts for 5.9% of total foreign exchange reserves. In the first two months of 2025, gold reserves have increased by a total of 10 tonnes.

Looking toward the future, the WGC is optimistic about the recovery of China’s gold market, supported by signs of economic improvement. Key indicators, such as manufacturing and composite purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), exceeded market consensus expectations in February. Additionally, significant new loans in January reflected effective policy stimulus aimed at boosting credit.

“Consumer confidence also showed a slight uptick in January, although the sustainability of this trend remains to be seen,” Jia stated. With an official growth target of 5% for 2025 and enhanced fiscal and monetary policies—including a higher deficit-to-GDP ratio—there is potential for stabilization in the gold jewelry sector if the bullish trend in gold prices reaffirms and the economic outlook continues to brighten.

Conclusion

In conclusion, China’s gold market in February highlights a dichotomy between investment demand and jewelry consumption. While the allure of gold as an investment remains strong, particularly given geopolitical uncertainties, the jewelry sector faces challenges due to soaring gold prices. The WGC foresees that if the gold price stabilizes and economic conditions improve further, the jewelry market may well see a rebound, reflecting broader economic recovery trends.