Nvidia’s Earnings Set to Test Stock Market Resilience After Big Tech Comeback

In the wake of a turbulent start to the year, tech stocks have rebounded impressively in May, driven largely by investor optimism surrounding the upcoming earnings release from Nvidia Corp. (NVDA). This resurgence comes after a rocky April, punctuated by U.S. tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump, which stirred uncertainty among investors and culminated in a substantial dip in market capitalization for major tech companies.

The April Shock and May Rebound

The tumultuous events of early April marked a period of steep losses for the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, which include Nvidia, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL). After Trump’s announcement of “liberation day” tariffs, the combined market cap of these companies plummeted by approximately $2.12 trillion from April 2 to April 8. However, the situation turned around dramatically in May, as these companies saw a remarkable recovery, fueled by a cautious yet resurgent investor sentiment.

As of the latest reports, Nvidia’s stock has climbed 24.3% throughout May, reflecting a 3.1% increase on the eve of its quarterly earnings announcement. Market observers are keenly aware that Nvidia’s performance will be a crucial indicator in setting the tone for the remainder of the earnings season. Tech stocks have increasingly been viewed as a “safe play” amid economic uncertainty, according to Melissa Brown, head of investment decision research at SimCorp. This perception is especially relevant given their resilience to macroeconomic pressures and their ability to meet earnings expectations.

The Strength of the Magnificent Seven

Recent analysis highlights the “Magnificent Seven” as a focal point for investors seeking stability. Following the announcement of a new U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, these tech giants managed to recover about $3.7 trillion in market capitalization. As of mid-May, their cumulative value stood at around $16.8 trillion, bolstered by a description of their business models as “pervasive” and essential in today’s economy. This category of stocks has shown significant gains compared to the broader S&P 500, which has only achieved a modest rise of about 4.4% during the same timeframe.

The latest earnings data also provides a silver lining for the tech sector. The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was recently pegged at 12.9%, surpassing the 10-year average of 8.9%. Notably, the Communication Services sector—a category in which Alphabet and Meta have significant footprints—reported a staggering earnings growth rate of 29.2%. This growth indicates that without the contributions from these two tech powerhouses, the sector’s performance would have notably lagged, dropping to 9.6%.

Nvidia’s Earnings: A Turning Point for Investors

As Nvidia prepares to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings, analysts and investors eagerly await the results. Many believe that after Nvidia reports, the “Magnificent Seven” will account for nearly half of the S&P 500’s earnings per share (EPS) growth—a significant implication for the overall market performance. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, anticipates that the extensive capital expenditure (capex) guidance for these companies, pegged at about $330 billion for 2025, will only fortify this growth trajectory.

As bond yields rise, the demand for these fundamentally strong tech stocks remains unshaken. Investors are still drawn to the potential of these firms as they continue to invest heavily in artificial intelligence and related technologies. The confluence of strong earnings reports and resilient operational strategies can provide a robust cushion against external financial pressures such as rising tariffs or inflationary concerns.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Nvidia and the Tech Sector

The coming days will be critical for not just Nvidia but for the entire technology sector, as the outcome of Nvidia’s earnings will serve as a test for the stock market’s overall health following its May comeback. Investors are poised on the brink, eager to gauge how this earnings report unfolds in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating economic indicators. The resilience displayed by the “Magnificent Seven” is a testament to their critical role in driving market performance in uncertain times.

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Challenges Ahead of Earnings Report

Shares of Nvidia Corporation have recently lost momentum, breaking a four-week streak of gains. As the company approaches its first fiscal quarter earnings report this week, analysts express concerns about potential trade pressures that could significantly influence its guidance.

Market Performance and Analyst Insights

Nvidia’s stock, which saw a remarkable 16% uptick in the previous week, ended last week in the red, down approximately 3%. This turn of events has drawn attention from financial analysts, particularly those at Bank of America and Mizuho Securities. Both institutions hinted at a period of adjustment for chip stocks, given the overall market trends and recent political developments.

Jordan Klein, a desk-based analyst at Mizuho Securities, remarked that while semiconductor stocks had been performing well recently due to a temporary pause in tariffs between the U.S. and China, the near-term outlook for these stocks might not seem as favorable anymore. “Not saying everyone dumps Semis today,” Klein noted, “but many of the stocks rallied so much that the near-term risk-reward no longer looked favorable in my eyes into mid-year.”

Concerns Over Guidance Amid U.S.-China Tensions

The looming earnings report has created an air of uncertainty, especially regarding Nvidia’s guidance for the upcoming July quarter. Analysts from Bank of America confirmed their buy rating for Nvidia’s stock (NVDA) but tempered expectations by cautioning about the potential for “messy” guidance. The complexity arises primarily from newly imposed restrictions affecting Nvidia’s operations in China.

In April, U.S. President Donald Trump instituted a ban on Nvidia’s specially designed H20 chip sales to Chinese customers. This rule change is anticipated to cause substantial financial repercussions for the company, as it expects up to $5.5 billion in charges for the April quarter alone. In an interview with Stratechery, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang described the ban as “deeply painful,” sharing that Nvidia had effectively “walked away from $15 billion of sales” and “$3 billion worth of taxes” due to the regulation.

Future Earnings Expectations

As Nvidia prepares to unveil its earnings, analysts, including Vivek Arya from Bank of America, are closely monitoring the company’s gross margin performance. Investors are particularly keen on signals that the gross margins will rebound to around the mid-70% range in the latter half of the year, signaling a recovery tied to the rollout of Nvidia’s Blackwell platform.

Despite the challenges posed by heightened geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes, Arya lauded Nvidia as a “top sector pick,” crediting its unique leverage in the ongoing global AI deployment cycle. There is also optimism regarding potential sales recovery in China with the introduction of redesigned and compliant products later in the year.

Revised Revenue Projections

Looking ahead, Bank of America analysts anticipate a “modest” earnings beat for the April quarter, projecting that the fallout from the H20 ban could lower gross margins to approximately 58%. In contrast, prior guidance estimated margins at around 71% before the imposition of the ban.

For the July quarter, analysts surveyed by FactSet estimate revenues could reach $46 billion. However, Bank of America has adjusted its revenue forecast down from $48 billion to $46.4 billion, reflecting the changes in market conditions after the H20 regulatory shift.

Conclusion

The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is poised to shed light on the company’s current financial health and market position amidst a challenging regulatory landscape and evolving market conditions. With analysts divided on predictions due to recent events, investors will be eagerly awaiting confirmations of growth strategies and shifts in guidance that could impact the semiconductor sector as a whole.

How Young Traders Are Getting Rich Betting on Everything from Rotten Tomatoes Scores to the Next Pope

As the realm of financial trading continues to evolve, a new wave of young traders is making their mark, capitalizing on the burgeoning world of prediction markets. Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and ForecastEx by Interactive Brokers enable traders to place bets on a variety of outcomes, ranging from mundane topics like egg prices to the more profound question of who will be the next pope.

The Nuances of Prediction Markets

Despite the Catholic Church’s teachings against gambling, traders on Kalshi have wagered over $10 million on the question, “Who will be the next Pope?” This statistic highlights the growing complexity and reach of prediction markets. With the sophistication of trading strategies echoing those in traditional financial markets, individuals are now engaging in arbitrage and market-making, showcasing their acumen in monetizing bets.

Meet a New Generation of Market Makers

One such trader, Coby Shpilberg, a 21-year-old from Palo Alto, California, exemplifies this new breed. With a background in data analytics, Shpilberg co-founded a clinical trial startup, but his passion for trading on Kalshi led him to develop a unique advantage. Initially focusing on Rotten Tomatoes scores for movies, he discovered that outdated algorithms weren’t enough to ensure profitability. His shift in strategy toward market-making became the key to his success.

According to Shpilberg, “What I was trying to do was essentially arbitrage. I had information where I thought I was quicker than everyone else.” After some early losses, he adopted a new mindset that ultimately led him to profit. This reflects the transition many traders undergo as they learn the intricacies of the market, where adopting sophisticated strategies is essential.

The Mechanics of Market-Making

Market makers play a critical role in financial ecosystems. By buying and selling considerable volumes of contracts, they ensure liquidity. Their profitability stems from a spread—the difference between the price buyers are willing to pay and the price sellers ask for. Shpilberg’s approach to market-making on Kalshi, despite its binary nature, is very similar.

On Kalshi, contracts feature a “yes” side and a “no” side, each paying out $1 upon the outcome of an event. The market reflects anticipated probabilities; for instance, a “yes” contract priced at $0.60 indicates a 60% likelihood of occurrence. Shpilberg capitalizes on this structure by placing buy and sell orders to secure profitable spreads, demonstrating that effective market-making requires a strategic and calculated approach.

The Role of Technology in Trading

Shpilberg has also harnessed the power of technology to enhance his trading efficiency. Using algorithms developed with ChatGPT and the Kalshi application programming interface (API), he automates much of his market analysis. This technological integration allows him to streamline his trading process, leading to significant profits—over $165,000 in just a few months.

Nevertheless, market-making isn’t without risks. Fast market shifts can lead to holding positions at unfavorable prices, requiring traders to enforce strict parameters regarding their trades. As Shpilberg notes, “Kalshi is a really cool playground to flex these skills,” indicating that these platforms offer unique opportunities for innovative traders.

The Classroom to the Trading Floor

Interestingly, the trend of algorithmic trading has permeated academia as well. Students from the University of Southern California created a Kalshi market-making algorithm as part of their coursework, achieving profits through simulated probability models based around the S&P 500. This reflects a growing trend where education and practical trading experience intersect, enabling new talent to emerge in the marketplace.

The Future of Prediction Markets

Traders on Kalshi utilize various strategies beyond market-making, including arbitrage, which emphasizes the predictive aspect of trading. As Hunter Foschini, a 23-year-old sales professional, asserts, “I actively look for profitable opportunities daily.” Some traders have even reached seven-figure profits, showcasing the potential of prediction markets as legitimate revenue sources.

As the landscape of prediction markets continues to evolve, experts like Davide Accomazzo from Pepperdine Graziadio Business School suggest that the increasing influx of money will lead to more efficiency within these systems. With the potential for prediction markets to resemble traditional derivative markets, the financial community is witnessing a significant shift marked by the ingenuity of young traders.

The rise of prediction markets not only fosters a democratized trading environment but also heralds the emergence of a new generation of market makers determined to exploit these fresh opportunities. As this niche continues to develop, it will undoubtedly reshape the way we perceive trading and investing.

Trump’s Discontent Over Apple’s Shift to India for Production

As geopolitical tensions escalate between the United States and China, Apple Inc. has been diversifying its production operations away from China, leading to friction with President Donald Trump. During a recent meeting in Qatar, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Apple’s increasing investment in India, arguing that the iPhone maker should focus on expanding production within the United States instead.

President Trump Takes Issue with Apple’s Expansion in India

According to reports from CNBC, President Trump noted he had a “little problem” with Apple’s Chief Executive Tim Cook. During their discussions, Trump articulated his concerns by stating, “I treated you very good,” implying that he expected Apple to prioritize U.S. production. He voiced his displeasure over the company’s burgeoning manufacturing footprint in India, asserting, “I don’t want you building in India.”

Apple’s Investment Strategy Amid Tariffs

In February, Apple announced a commitment of $500 billion to U.S. investments over the next four years. However, most of these funds appear to target sectors like server production and Apple TV+ programming, rather than the actual manufacturing of consumer devices. Currently, Apple does not produce any smartphones domestically, and the company has been actively seeking alternatives to Chinese production since the COVID-19 pandemic stressed global supply chains.

Despite desires to relocate operations, the scope of manufacturing in the U.S. is challenging. An analyst from Wedbush Securities, Dan Ives, pointed out that if major U.S. technology companies find themselves penalized by tariffs on imported goods, it could drastically reshape the technological landscape for years to come. Notably, Ives emphasized that a U.S.-manufactured iPhone could bear a staggering price tag of around $3,500—more than triple its current cost around $1,000.

The Challenges of Domestic Manufacturing

Experts agree that shifting manufacturing back to the United States is not a straightforward task. Dipanjan Chatterjee, an analyst with Forrester Research, noted that adapting the manufacturing footprint and supply chain setup can be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. Chatterjee remarked, “It’s not something you want to take action on unless you think it is absolutely the right thing to do.”

According to an earlier assessment by D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, a realistic timeframe for any significant move toward U.S. manufacturing might extend between five to ten years, and even then, such a shift would only slightly increase production costs. He stressed that the current disparity between China and the U.S. in manufacturing capabilities is more a difference in skills than in pricing.

Apple’s Manufacturing in India: A Growing Trend

Despite Trump’s push for domestic manufacturing, Apple plans to ramp up its production in India, which has become increasingly significant for the company. Reports from Bloomberg indicate that approximately 20% of Apple’s iPhones—over 40 million devices—were produced in India during the previous year. By the end of 2026, Apple aims for the majority of its U.S. iPhone sales to originate from India, leveraging partnerships with suppliers like Foxconn Technology Group, which recently received approval to establish a chip plant in the country.

U.S. Policies and Global Technology Standards

The shift in global production dynamics is compounded by the U.S. government’s regulations on foreign technology firms, particularly in regard to Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.. Recent guidance from the U.S. Commerce Department suggested that the use of Huawei’s technology might lead to penalties, further complicating international trade in technology.

Richard Windsor, a prominent analyst, remarked on the geopolitical landscape, explaining, “If the majority of the planet is aligned against China when it comes to technology standards, then this will greatly help the USA and the West to win the ideological struggle that is currently being fought in the technology sector.” Meanwhile, he questioned the necessity of targeting Huawei’s chips, pointing to economic realities that may determine their choice over Western alternatives.

Conclusion

While Apple continues to navigate complex geopolitical tensions, the company faces pressure from the U.S. government and President Trump to prioritize domestic manufacturing. As the tech sector adapts to increasingly stringent trade policies and rapidly evolving consumer expectations, the impacts on costs, product pricing, and global supply chains will remain a critical focus for industry analysts and investors alike.

Cisco Earnings Showcase AI Momentum, Stock Rises

Cisco Systems Inc. has reported impressive earnings for its fiscal third quarter, highlighting its robust demand amidst the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The company recorded a revenue of $14.1 billion, marking an 11% increase from the previous year and surpassing the FactSet consensus of $14 billion. This positive trajectory has not only reflected strong demand for Cisco’s networking products but has also boosted the company’s stock by nearly 3% in extended trading following the earnings beat.

Financial Performance Highlights

In addition to revenue growth, Cisco reported adjusted earnings of 96 cents a share, which is a 9% increase from the previous year, also exceeding the consensus estimate of 92 cents. Cisco’s Chief Executive, Chuck Robbins, expressed confidence in the company’s capabilities: “Cisco once again had strong quarterly results with clear demand for our technologies. The momentum we are seeing with AI is fueled by the power of our secure networking portfolio, our trusted global partnerships, and the value we bring to our customers.”

Future Guidance and Strategic Moves

Looking ahead, Cisco has provided optimistic revenue guidance for the upcoming July quarter, estimating revenue between $14.5 billion and $14.7 billion, which aligns with analysts’ expectations. For the full fiscal year, the company anticipates revenue to be between $56.5 billion and $56.7 billion. Cisco’s Chief Financial Officer, Scott Herren, noted the company’s strong execution in third-quarter revenue, margins, and earnings per share, stating, “Our innovation positions us well for future growth, and our operational discipline is generating strong cash flows, enabling us to deliver significant shareholder returns.”

Leadership Changes

In the earnings call, it was also revealed that Scott Herren will retire in July, with Mark Patterson, current Chief Strategy Officer, taking over as the new Chief Financial Officer. This transition marks a new chapter for Cisco as it seeks to maintain its momentum in the competitive networking landscape.

AI Infrastructure Growth

Cisco’s focus on AI-related infrastructure has clearly paid off, with the company reporting that AI-infrastructure orders from webscale customers exceeded $600 million during the quarter. Remarkably, this total surpassed Cisco’s $1 billion target one quarter earlier than anticipated. The company’s product orders experienced a substantial 20% increase year-over-year, rising to 9% when excluding orders from Splunk. Furthermore, product revenue was up 15% year-over-year, while services revenue increased by 3%.

Market Dynamics and Future Prospects

Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Cisco’s future performance. According to analysts at Evercore ISI, “Margins look relatively derisked given Cisco has incorporated tariff impacts into their guide that are likely higher than what they will actually see due to their assumption of a tariff on [U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement] compliant goods.” The analysts further noted that Cisco should benefit from a cyclical networking recovery and expects some product refreshes to provide additional support over the next twelve months. They anticipate that barring any surprises in the security and observability segments, Cisco’s stock is likely to continue on an upward trajectory.

Innovation at Cisco

Innovation remains key to Cisco’s strategy, as the company announced earlier this month a chip prototype expected to accelerate the scalability of quantum networks. This development aims to significantly shorten the timeline for practical quantum computing from decades to between five to ten years, showcasing Cisco’s commitment to being at the forefront of technological advancements.

Conclusion

Cisco’s strong earnings report and focus on AI-driven networking solutions have laid the groundwork for future growth and innovation in the tech sector. With key leadership transitions and a robust product pipeline, Cisco seems well-positioned to leverage the ongoing AI momentum, offering significant shareholder returns while continuing to enhance its technological prowess.

Nvidia Reclaims $3 Trillion Market Cap as U.S. Explores Saudi Chip Deal

Nvidia Corporation has made headlines once again by surpassing a market capitalization of $3 trillion for the first time since February. This resurgence in Nvidia’s valuation is largely attributed to expectations surrounding a prospective U.S. chip deal with Saudi Arabia, which is set to be unveiled by President Donald Trump during his upcoming Middle East visit.

The Deal in the Works

According to reports from Bloomberg, the Trump administration is negotiating an agreement that would allow Saudi Arabia greater access to advanced semiconductor technology from American companies such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). The U.S. and Saudi governments are reportedly finalizing the details of this arrangement, designed to bolster Saudi tech capabilities while navigating U.S. national security concerns regarding potential Chinese access to these advanced chips.

Despite China being banned from receiving U.S. advanced semiconductors, there are worries that these chips could still reach Chinese entities either by intercepting shipments or through access via cloud services. Currently, U.S. companies are mandated to secure licenses to sell AI chips to countries in the Middle East, a measure stemming from these very security concerns.

Market Reactions

The news of a potential deal had an immediate positive impact on the market, with shares in Nvidia climbing by 5.6% and closing with a market cap of $3.17 trillion. AMD also saw a 4% increase in its share price by the end of the trading day. Clearly, investors are optimistic about the technological collaboration that this deal could spur in the region.

Addressing Security Concerns

To alleviate U.S. national security apprehensions, discussions have emerged around establishing data embassies that would allow Saudi data centers to fall under foreign regulations rather than local laws. This initiative could foster a more secure environment for both foreign governments and private sector entities focused on technology for peaceful purposes. According to a draft of the law referenced by Bloomberg, these data embassies are being viewed as a viable solution to address potential misuse of advanced chips.

A Shift in Regulatory Framework

This initiative emerges while the Trump administration is reworking rules surrounding the export of advanced chips, following the rollback of AI regulations set forth by the Biden administration. Critics have labeled the previous regulations as complex and bureaucratic, arguing that they could stifle American innovation. A statement from the Bureau of Industry and Security emphasized their commitment to simplifying regulations to promote American dominance in AI technologies.

Broader Implications for Nvidia

The possible agreement with Saudi Arabia is significant not just for geopolitical reasons, but also for Nvidia’s bottom line. The company has faced restrictions on selling its H20 chips to China since April, which it estimated could result in charges reaching up to $5.5 billion in the first fiscal quarter of the ongoing financial year. This new deal could provide a much-needed financial boost to Nvidia, especially if similar arrangements are made with countries like the United Arab Emirates.

Strategic Partnerships in AI Development

In conjunction with these developments, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang announced a partnership to deploy 18,000 chips with a newly launched Saudi AI firm called Humain. This collaborative endeavor seeks to establish a data center with an expected capacity of 500 megawatts. The Humain firm, backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, is focused on building advanced Arabic language models and AI infrastructure, including extensive data centers. Moreover, AMD has also engaged in a significant partnership with Humain, pledging $10 billion to build the region’s AI capabilities over the next five years.

Conclusion

The trajectory of Nvidia, propelled by potential international deals and burgeoning partnerships, underscores the growing intersection of technology, finance, and geopolitics. As the U.S. government plays a critical role in shaping the landscape of advanced semiconductor technology access, Nvidia’s resurgence in market capitalization signifies a pivotal moment in the semiconductor industry and the future of AI technology both domestically and internationally.

Nvidia, AMD Propel Semiconductor Sector to Highest Close Since February

In a significant boost for the semiconductor sector, stocks surged to their highest close since February, largely fueled by momentum from the newly reached U.S.-China trade agreement. Notably, the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which tracks 30 of the largest semiconductor firms in the U.S., reported a remarkable **7% gain** at the market’s close on Monday, achieving a closing value of $4,780.93. This is a substantial improvement, although it still remains **19% lower** than its all-time high of $5,904.54 from July 2024, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.

Trade Agreement Sparks Optimism in the Market

The recent agreement between U.S. and Chinese officials to cut tariffs has reinvigorated the semiconductor industry. As part of this deal, the U.S. is set to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from **145% to 30%**, while China will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods from **125% to 10%** for a 90-day trial period. Analysts from Wedbush emphasize that this agreement is merely the beginning of broader negotiations aimed at further reducing tariffs, suggesting that “new highs for the market and tech stocks are now on the table” for the remainder of 2025. They believe that the considerable tariff reductions at this time likely alleviate recession fears temporarily.

Key Performers in the Semiconductor Sector

This surge in the semiconductor sector was reflected in the stock prices of major players. Personal computer and smartphone component suppliers benefited significantly, with:

• Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) rising by **5.4%**
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) climbing **5.1%**
• Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) increasing by **6.4%**
• Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) advancing **4.8%**
• Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC) leading gains at **12.8%**
• Intel Corp. (INTC) seeing the smallest increase at **3.5%**

The aggregate market capitalization of Nvidia and the group known as the “Magnificent Seven” surged by over $830 billion following the trade agreement, with Nvidia itself contributing substantially by adding $155 billion to its market cap.

Analysts’ Outlook for Nvidia and Semiconductor Stocks

Amid this market rally, analysts at Melius Research retain an optimistic stance on Nvidia’s stock, stating that the increased clarity regarding tariffs and trade dynamics with China renders the company more **“investable.”** Despite this positivity, they cautioned about an impending decision by President Donald Trump regarding imports of semiconductors under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which could disrupt certain supply chains temporarily.

In a recent note, Melius analysts suggested that investors should go “back to fundamentals” with Nvidia. They highlighted the company’s declining stock price-to-earnings ratio, which is near a **five-year low**, and emphasized that every technological advancement requires an “accelerator.” This suggests a renewed focus on underlying financial fundamentals as a gauge for Nvidia’s future performance.

Conclusion: A Promising Outlook for the Semiconductor Sector

Overall, the recent trade agreement has granted a temporary lifeline to the semiconductor sector, propelling both Nvidia and AMD, along with other prominent tech stocks, back into the spotlight. As the market closely monitors further negotiations between the U.S. and China, analysts predict that this momentum could sustain further gains, allowing for an optimistic year ahead in the tech sector. With the potential for decreasing tariffs and increasing investor confidence, the semiconductor industry appears to be poised for a significant resurgence as it navigates through the complexities of trade relations and market demands.