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Big Tech’s AI Spending Surge: What It Means for Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple in the Next Quarter

Hannah Perry | October 29, 2024

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Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple Went on an AI Spending Spree Last Quarter. What’s Next for Big Tech?

Introduction

Artificial intelligence (AI) has proven to be a transformative force for businesses, capturing the attention of investors eager to analyze how big tech firms are channeling funds into this groundbreaking technology. As corporate earnings season unfolds, AI spending has emerged as a major theme, overshadowing traditional metrics like earnings and sales. Major players like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have recently ramped up their investments in AI, signaling an ongoing commitment to growth in this area.

The Growing Importance of AI Investments

According to recent reports, a significant trend is set to characterize the upcoming set of earnings from big tech: an increased focus on AI investments. Industry observers are keenly watching how companies articulate their capital expenditure (capex) plans, as increases in spending indicate a strategic pivot towards AI capabilities. In June, companies such as Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet reported their earnings, which revealed that stock performance had less to do with typical financial metrics and more to do with AI-related commentary. Notably, these firms experienced a direct correlation between anticipated capex and actual spending, primarily focused on AI initiatives.

John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, highlights a critical question in this context: “Are they going to keep taking these capex plans higher, or could this be the first quarter where we see these capex plans more reiterated than getting raised again?” Investors are eager to know if these tech giants will continue to push their spending boundaries, as overshooting expectations could lead to unfavorable stock reactions.

What’s on the Horizon?

Alphabet will kick off earnings reports among the so-called AI hyperscalers on Tuesday, soon to be followed by Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Meta is anticipated to increase its AI spending the most, predicting a surge of 35%, while Apple is expected to follow with a 17% rise, as noted in FactSet’s consensus estimates. Although Microsoft and Amazon are projected to increase their AI spending modestly—6.6% and 2.5%, respectively—Alphabet stands apart, with expectations of a 4% decrease in capex.

The disparity in spending strategies indicates that while some organizations are pushing for aggressive expansion in AI capabilities, others are recalibrating their strategies. Notably, Amazon’s hefty investment of $17 billion last quarter dwarfs Apple’s comparatively modest $2.2 billion expenditure. This implies a significant variance in how firms are pursuing opportunities tied to AI.

Why the Increased Spending?

The trajectory towards heightened AI spending can be attributed to a combination of competitive pressures and the potential for revenue generation. With the tech landscape evolving rapidly, companies recognize the necessity of advancing their AI capabilities to stay ahead of competitors and achieve profitable outcomes. However, the onus now falls on these corporations to convince investors that such significant capital investments will translate into meaningful monetization.

As Belton points out, pre-emptively riding a an eight-year bull market allowed tech giants to adopt a somewhat reckless approach to spending. With changing market dynamics, accountability for expenditures is paramount. Alphabet must demonstrate a clear path to monetizing its AI offerings, like the Gen AI chatbot Gemini, while Meta is expected to do the same with its open-source large language model, Llama. Fulfilling investor expectations means delivering a robust rationale for these expenses that go beyond merely surpassing estimates or enhancing forward guidance.

Conclusion

In a landscape where AI is increasingly integrated into business models, the upcoming earnings reports from big tech firms will serve as critical barometers of the industry’s future. Investors will be closely scrutinizing how well these companies can translate their monumental AI investments into profitable ventures. With each firm aiming to position itself strategically in this rapidly evolving domain, AI spending will likely continue to drive corporate narratives in the tech sector, showcasing both the high-stakes nature of modern business and the ever-pressing need for innovative advantages.

While this earnings season unfolds, the tech world’s gaze will undoubtedly be fixated on the implications of these spending strategies and their potential to reshape the future of the industry. The quest for successful monetization of AI will be a recurring theme, reminding investors that while the enthusiasm for AI is palpable, the journey to profitable implementation is equally critical.