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Intel’s Struggle: Can CEO Pat Gelsinger Spark a Nvidia-Like Stock Surge?

Hannah Perry | November 4, 2024

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Intel Stock: A Desperate Need for a Nvidia-Like Surge

Under the leadership of CEO Pat Gelsinger, Intel’s stock performance has been troubling, nearing a catastrophic decline that, according to some analysts, could result in the loss of over $100 million in paper value linked to Gelsinger’s performance-based equity awards. Since his assumption of the CEO role on February 15, 2021, Intel has seen its shares plunge 63%, closing at $22.68, down from $61.81. With shares losing more than half their value just this year alone, having set a multiyear low of $18.51 on September 10, the urgency for a turnaround is increasing.

Executive Compensation and Stockholder Value

The troubling stock performance has not gone unnoticed, especially considering Gelsinger’s financial stake in Intel. Initially, his equity awards were tied to ambitious stock performance metrics, with nearly 75% of these awards contingent upon significant stock price appreciation. Intel’s response highlighted its emphasis on a strong pay-for-performance philosophy, including executive compensation programs designed to align with the company’s financial and operational results, thus ensuring that stockholder value is prioritized.

Intel’s compensation programs have seen adjustments over the years. Gelsinger was awarded cash bonuses for meeting operational goals in 2021, but 2022 saw his cash bonus tumble to just $945,900—less than a quarter of what it was the previous year—alongside a decline in stock compensation.

Unfulfilled Expectations and Market Comparisons

Upon his return to Intel, Gelsinger expressed optimism about reclaiming the company’s leadership in technology by 2025. However, the excitement soon turned into disappointment as Intel’s stocks barely moved in 2021, achieving a mere 3.4% gain compared to significant increases in the iShares Semiconductor ETF and S&P 500 index. The subsequent years were equally grim, particularly with disappointing guidance that significantly affected stock prices. The market seems to be demanding a “Nvidia-like” run for Intel to stabilize and recover.

Recent Performance and Stock Outlook

The year 2023 brought some resurgence, with Intel’s stock surging by 90%, driven by strong earnings reports and a positive outlook as the Intel Foundry strategy began to take shape. However, 2024 has not been forgiving. A grim forecast released on January 26 led to a substantial drop of 12%, followed by yet another dip in April when disappointing earnings were reported. The most recent quarterly report delivered a staggering 26% drop in share value, leaving investors reeling.

Intel’s share price is vital, not just for individual investors but also for Gelsinger, with significant portions of his equity awards hinging on achieving specific stock prices. If Intel fails to reach certain thresholds by February 15, 2026, he risks forfeiting hundreds of millions in performance-based equity, a fate that would signify an enormous setback for the company and its leadership.

The Stark Comparisons with Nvidia

Nvidia’s stock has performed astoundingly well, prompting experts to question if Intel can achieve similar growth trajectories. Nvidia shares traded at $141.54 recently and took about 20 months to surge 557% from earlier lows. In stark contrast, Intel would need to experience a monumental 185% increase simply to preserve a portion of Gelsinger’s equity awards successfully. Comparatively, achieving even this seemingly modest gain is no simple feat for Intel’s beleaguered stock.

CEO’s Commitment: An Insider Perspective

Interestingly, Gelsinger has refrained from selling any Intel shares since taking the helm, which is quite rare in the industry. His significant purchases in Intel have, unfortunately, resulted in more paper losses than gains, as evidenced by shares bought at various points throughout his tenure. Intel has noted that Gelsinger’s ongoing commitment to stock ownership exemplifies his confidence in the company’s long-term value creation potential, despite the recent struggles.

Looking Forward: Intel’s Upcoming Earnings

As investors eagerly await Intel’s third-quarter earnings report scheduled for Halloween night, the anticipation surrounding the potential for a turnaround remains palpable. Given the recent history of volatility and underperformance, how Intel navigates this crucial period will likely play a key role in determining not only the company’s future but also Gelsinger’s legacy and financial well-being.

In conclusion, there is a palpable sense of urgency driving Intel to realize a significant rebound in stock performance. Without achieving Nvidia-like growth in the coming months, the ramifications for both the company and Gelsinger could be substantial, amidst a backdrop of fierce competition in the semiconductor industry.