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Wall Street Braces for Caution as Q2 Earnings Approach Amid Tariff Woes

Hannah Perry | June 2, 2025

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Wall Street Approaches Q2 Earnings Season with Caution Amid Tariff Concerns

As tariff-related tensions continue to strain global trade, Wall Street is adopting a more cautious stance heading into the second-quarter earnings season. Despite a slight uptick in consumer sentiment toward the end of May, analysts are pulling back on their earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. According to a FactSet report, earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates have declined by approximately 4% from March 31 to May 29, signifying a departure from the typical trend observed in previous quarters.

Analysts Adjust Expectations

Historical data shows that analysts often reduce EPS estimates in the early stages of a quarter; however, this year’s adjustments appear more pronounced. Typically, estimates are cut by an average of 2.6% during the first two months of a quarter, a figure that extends to 3.1% over the past two decades. The current scenario reflects a shift in sentiment, aligning with growing skepticism surrounding the impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers alike. Following a wave of optimism fueled by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation, Wall Street’s outlook took a turn, with analysts voicing concerns over rising living costs.

The Tariff Dilemma

President Trump has maintained that imposing tariffs is vital to restore manufacturing jobs in the United States, claiming that the current global trade framework is stacked against American interests. The most stringent tariffs were announced last month but are temporarily on hold following a recent court ruling. A pivotal appeals court decision has allowed the tariffs to remain in effect for now, adding to the uncertainty facing retailers and consumers as they navigate a shifting economic landscape.

What to Expect in Upcoming Earnings Reports

This week marks a significant period for retail earnings, with numerous chains set to unveil their performance results. Companies such as Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI), Five Below Inc. (FIVE), Petco Health and Wellness Co. Inc. (WOOF), and clothing rental platform Rent the Runway Inc. (RENT) are among those reporting. Traditional clothing brands like PVH Corp. (PVH), Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH), Lands’ End Inc. (LE), and G-III Apparel Group Ltd. (GIII) will also join them, alongside Campbell’s Co. (CPB) and Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B).

Victoria’s Secret Under Pressure

Perhaps one of the most anticipated reports is from Victoria’s Secret & Co. The intimate apparel and activewear brand faces numerous challenges, from heightened competition with celebrity brands to ongoing trade tensions. Analysts from UBS have signaled caution, suggesting that women’s intimate apparel lacks significant growth drivers to outperform in the current climate. The brand’s recent cybersecurity issues have further complicated its position. Analysts are particularly keen to monitory how the company addresses these obstacles in its upcoming earnings announcement.

Snapshot of Dollar Stores

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Dollar General Corp. (DG) and Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) will disclose their quarterly results. These updates come as Dollar Tree plans to separate from Family Dollar due to stiff competition from larger retailers combined with the looming impact of tariffs that threaten to exacerbate the financial struggles of low-income consumers.

A Broader Perspective

Investor sentiment appears mixed heading into the earnings report season. While the overall projected growth for S&P 500 companies stands at around 5% in terms of per-share profit growth for the second quarter, the murky backdrop created by tariffs and rising costs casts a shadow over these optimistic forecasts. The upcoming weeks will likely serve as critical indicators for the retail space, laying the groundwork for how businesses plan to tackle potential challenges ahead.

In conclusion, as the second-quarter earnings reports roll in, stakeholders will be watching closely for insights into how companies are adjusting to changing economic realities, response strategies regarding tariffs, and overall consumer demand.