The Fed’s Limited Tools: What Lies Ahead for U.S. Economic Stability
The U.S. central bank’s ability to respond to future economic crises is becoming increasingly constrained. Recent data shows that U.S. inflation is moderating, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider a cut to the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter-point during its upcoming meeting. Investors are naturally focused on the potential impact of further rate decreases, especially after a half-point reduction in September sparked a significant rally in major stock indexes.
Understanding the Inflation Target
While the Fed aims for a 2% inflation target, this figure is somewhat arbitrary. It reflects a broader pursuit of price stability, which is achieved when anticipated inflation rates don’t significantly alter consumer or business behavior. In an environment of price stability, consumers are less likely to rush to spend, while businesses are encouraged to invest without the fear of falling prices complicating loan repayments. However, this raises questions about the so-called “neutral rate of interest” or “r star,” which provides insight into the appropriate level for the federal funds rate.
The Neutral Rate Explained
The neutral rate embodies a balance where the funds rate is low enough to promote maximum employment and investment yet high enough to prevent excessive inflation. Current projections from policymakers anticipate that inflation will stabilize at 2% while the federal funds rate settles at around 2.9%. This situation would imply a neutral rate of just 0.9%, leaving minimal room for the Fed to cut interest rates in anticipation of a future economic downturn.
A Historical Comparison
Historically, the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by an average of 5.3 percentage points during easing cycles, including previous economic crises from the 1960s through the COVID-19 pandemic. However, both the Fed’s conceptualizations of the neutral rate and econometric estimates have witnessed a decline over decades. Key contributors to this trend include:
1. Potential Economic Growth
The neutral rate is influenced by potential economic growth, which hinges on productivity and labor force growth. Enhanced growth could ignite entrepreneurial risks, invite increased business investments, and boost the neutral rate. Yet, maintaining excessively low interest rates could lead to overinvestment by businesses and inhibited savings among households too.
2. Demographic Trends
Recent demographic shifts, including declining birth rates, mean the potential growth of the labor force has also diminished. Although longer life expectancies enhance the workforce longevity, they simultaneously require more savings for retirement, further diluting the neutral rate.
3. Risk Aversion Among Households
The behavior of U.S. households also plays a critical role in determining the neutral rate. A heightened inclination towards safer investments, like U.S. Treasurys and certificates of deposit (CDs), can influence the overall pool of available savings and lead to a reduction in the neutral rate.
Recent Developments: Factors Influencing the Neutral Rate
Interestingly, several factors are coalescing to perhaps elevate the neutral rate more than anticipated by the Fed:
- Artificial Intelligence and Capital Demand: As businesses invest significantly in AI technologies, the demand for capital is projected to surge. This influx of investment could dramatically boost productivity growth in various sectors.
- Increased Labor Force via Immigration: The current administration’s immigration policies may also enhance economic growth, countering the decline in native population growth and potentially raising the neutral rate.
- Households Returning to Risky Investments: Following the Global Financial Crisis, many households sought safety in investments but are now again embracing riskier assets, such as stocks and private credit funds, which can impact overall spending and savings, influencing the neutral rate.
Additionally, the federal deficit stands at approximately 7% of GDP, a peacetime level rivaled only during significant economic downturns. This situation further strains the pool of available savings and exerts upward pressure on the neutral rate.
Looking Ahead: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Strategy
Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, seems prepared to look beyond traditional estimates of the neutral rate. His strategy appears to hinge on balancing the risks of overly tightening versus insufficiently constraining monetary policy. For Powell and the Fed, the forthcoming challenge may involve determining that the federal funds rate could sustain higher levels than previously thought, potentially exceeding the approximated 2.9% rate.
Conclusion
As the U.S. economy continues to navigate uncertain waters, the Federal Reserve’s ability to intervene effectively in the face of economic crises is far from assured. With the neutral rate subject to a variety of influences and historical averages suggesting greater cut margins, investors and policymakers alike will need to tread carefully to maintain economic stability.