Blog

Unlock Hidden Profits: Why Small-Cap Stocks Are Your Best Bet in a Tumultuous Market

Hannah Perry | March 5, 2025

Responsive image

Cut the Risk: How to Leverage Small-Cap Stocks Amid Market Uncertainty

As the winds of change swirl around the market, thanks to President Donald Trump’s controversial tariffs, traders are rightfully looking for ways to protect their portfolios. The landscape tells a tale of concentration, with the S&P 500 heavily weighted toward a select group of large-cap stocks, making diversification more crucial than ever. So where can you find sanctuary? Enter the neglected realm of small-cap stocks—your secret weapon to cut down risk while adding growth potential.

The Small-Cap Advantage: A Case for Diversification

According to Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer at Royce Investment Partners, investing in small-cap stocks right now can provide a buffer against the volatility stemming from major market players. The S&P 500 is famously top-heavy, with the “Magnificent Seven”—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla—making up a staggering 30.6% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. If you want a slice of the market that’s more balanced and potentially underappreciated, small caps might just be your golden ticket.

The Russell 2000 Index, the benchmark for small caps, now contributes only 4.7% to the Russell 3000—as low as it’s been since the 1980s. Historically, small caps have represented closer to 8% of the index. This suggests a golden opportunity for savvy traders who recognize the misalignment.

Why Small-Caps Are Looking Good Right Now

Small-cap stocks not only offer diversification but also present an intriguing valuation proposition. The average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P Small Cap 600 currently stands at 15.1, slightly below that of its mid-cap counterpart and significantly lower than the S&P 500’s robust 21.3. This disparity indicates a value opportunity for astute investors.

Performance Metrics: Valuations vs. Growth Rates

Here’s how the three major indexes stack up in terms of valuations against their historical averages:

Sector or Index Forward P/E Forward P/E to 5-Year Average Forward P/E to 10-Year Average Forward P/E to 15-Year Average
S&P 500 21.3 106% 114% 126%
S&P Mid Cap 400 15.3 95% 96% 100%
S&P Small Cap 600 15.1 96% 96% 100%

This data emphasizes the potential underpricing of small-caps compared to large-caps, a crucial insight for anyone considering where to park their funds.

Future Growth Projections: What the Numbers Reveal

As if the value case isn’t compelling enough, small-cap stocks also demonstrate a favorable growth trajectory. Projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the next two years indicate promising earnings performance:

Index Two-Year Estimated Sales CAGR through 2026 Two-Year Estimated EPS CAGR through 2026
S&P 500 6.0% 13.4%
S&P Mid Cap 400 4.6% 13.3%
S&P Small Cap 600 4.1% 16.2%

Notably, small-cap earnings growth is projected to outpace that of larger counterparts. This is particularly interesting considering that the Federal Reserve’s recent cut in interest rates could alleviate the financial burdens that often affect small firms the most.

Your Tactical Move: Invest in Small Caps

With all this data on hand, how can you take action? Diversify your portfolio by reallocating funds into small-cap mutual funds or ETFs. The Royce Small Cap Fund is worth a look, boasting a diversified portfolio targeted toward quality and value in smaller firms. Alternatively, consider ETFs like the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) or the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO) for broad market exposure.

Conclusion: Small Caps Are Not to Be Ignored

In this climate of uncertainty fueled by geopolitical events, broadening your investment strategy to include small-cap stocks isn’t just smart—it’s essential. With attractive valuations and strong growth prospects, this “forgotten” sector of the market is ripe for exploration. Remember, a diversified portfolio can weather the unpredictability of the market better than one reliant solely on its giants. Get tactical, get diversified, and watch your portfolio thrive!