This Tweet Got Ignored in January — Now It’s the Most Accurate Market Call of 2025
On January 18, 2025, macro analyst Carl Moon Runefelt made a bold prediction that seems prophetic in hindsight. He warned followers of an impending financial meltdown, a caution that was largely overlooked at the time. Fast forward three months, and with the S&P 500 down nearly 20% and emergency Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in effect, Runefelt’s warning is increasingly being viewed as not just fearmongering but as a prescient forecast.
In his tweet, Runefelt conveyed his concerns regarding rising debts overshadowed by euphoria in the stock market. He expressed belief that a significant financial crisis loomed on the horizon, stating, “I believe we will see a big financial meltdown in the coming months. Bitcoin is the Noah’s ark in the economic flood that is coming. Get in the boat.” At that moment, his tweet slipped under the radar, garnering little media coverage. However, as financial conditions spiraled into volatility and credit markets began to tighten, analysts revisited Runefelt’s warning.
Indicators of an Impending Crisis
Accompanying his original tweet was a chart illustrating the surge of the federal funds rate—a key indicator that can precipitate recession-like conditions. In a follow-up YouTube video titled How I Predicted This STOCK MARKET Crash, Runefelt elaborated on the repeating cycle he sees. He argued that historically, once the Fed reaches a peak interest rate and begins aggressive cuts, a recession usually follows. “They lower interest rates, then comes the recession,” he explained. “It’s not about if, it’s about when.”
The Future of Monetary Policy
Runefelt didn’t merely stop at his recession forecast. He outlined what he envisions as the next phases of monetary policy—specifically zero percent interest rates, aggressive money printing, and an environment that favors Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic distress. “We’re going to see zero percent interest rates again. They’ll print extreme amounts of money,” Runefelt predicted. He views Bitcoin not simply as a speculative investment, but as an essential financial fortress.
Alignment with Market Trends
Since Runefelt’s predictions, the financial landscape has begun to align more closely with his thesis. The Fed made an emergency interest rate cut of 75 basis points, defaults across various sectors have increased, and credit conditions are tightening. The S&P 500’s continuing decline has led to a cacophony of recession alarms from analysts; however, Runefelt maintains that this reaction is part of the problem. “Accuracy means saying what people don’t want to hear when markets are at all-time highs,” he emphasized.
Bitcoin’s Resilience and Future Price Predictions
While the crypto market experienced declines alongside equities, Runefelt has stayed consistent in his forecast, positing that Bitcoin will rebound once liquidity conditions improve. His price target for Bitcoin remains audacious—$300,000 per coin by the end of the year, and even a potential one million dollars within the next five years. In the interim, he continues to accumulate more Bitcoin and Ethereum while navigating market fluctuations.
A Call to Awareness
Carl Moon Runefelt is not reveling in what some might consider a vindication of his past warnings. Instead, he asks a critical question: why were such forewarnings ignored in the first place? “It’s about understanding macro cycles, human behavior, and liquidity,” he stated. “That’s what I’ve been studying for years.” His original tweet has now transformed from a cautionary alert into a tangible argument for greater attention to macroeconomic perspectives within the cryptocurrency discourse.
If the Fed continues on its current trajectory, Runefelt’s insights could signal a broader shift in how independent macro voices in the crypto realm are regarded. The financial community may soon find that paying attention to such predictions is not just prudent but essential for navigating the uncertain waters ahead.