Pfizer Maintains 2025 Profit Outlook Despite Paxlovid’s Sales Decline

On April 30, 2025, Pfizer Inc., a dominant player in the pharmaceutical industry, reaffirmed its profit forecast for 2025, even as it contended with a significant drop in sales of its COVID-19 therapeutic, Paxlovid. This announcement came as the company reported a revenue miss in its first-quarter earnings, leading to a mixed reception in the stock market.

Stock Performance and Financial Summary

Despite facing an “uncertain and volatile external environment,” Pfizer’s stock climbed by 4% following the earnings announcement, although it has seen a year-to-date decline of 9.6%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has decreased by 5.4% in the same period. Pfizer’s financial results included a profit drop of 5% compared to the previous year, amounting to $2.97 billion, or 52 cents per share. However, the company’s adjusted profit of 92 cents per share surpassed analysts’ expectations of 56 cents, attributed to stringent cost-saving measures.

For the three months ending March 31, Pfizer’s total revenue fell by 8% to $13.72 billion, underperforming against the expected $13.92 billion from analysts. Chief Financial Officer David Denton highlighted that operational efficiency and financial discipline are pivotal in attaining favorable results despite headwinds.

Paxlovid Sales Plummet

One of the most concerning aspects of the earnings report was the steep decline in Paxlovid sales, which nosedived by 75%, amounting to approximately $500 million. This decrease is largely attributed to the reduced rate of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. and a drop in government orders. Notably, the previous year’s sales figures had benefited from a one-time revenue credit of $771 million, rendering this year’s year-over-year comparisons less favorable.

Encouraging Trends with Other Products

On a more positive note, Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, enjoyed a 62% increase in sales, showcasing the company’s ability to adapt its portfolio in response to evolving market demands. Additionally, sales of the Vyndaqel drug family, which addresses the rare disease TTR that can lead to organ damage, rose by 33%. These gains reflect Pfizer’s continued strength in diversified therapeutic areas, despite the challenges posed by its COVID-19 products.

Guidance and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, Pfizer maintained its forecast for adjusted profits between $2.80 and $3.00 per share for 2025 and projected revenue in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion, slightly above the analyst consensus estimate of $62.8 billion. Schaeffer’s Investment Research analyst Chris Larkin remarked on the company’s focus on cost reductions, which are expected to reach $4.5 billion by the end of 2025, along with the additional expectation of $1.2 billion in extra productivity gains through 2027.

Analysts Weigh In

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Carter Gould noted that Pfizer’s performance, driven by effective cost management, presents potential upside for the remaining year, even though the company decided to hold the line on its 2025 forecast for now. Furthermore, Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Daniel Barasa commented that the revenue miss may largely be due to changes in Medicare Part D, with Pfizer’s results aligning with market expectations.

Barasa also expressed the need for significant acquisition strategies to substantially alter the company’s fortunes, especially in light of recent setbacks in its research and development efforts.

Challenges Ahead

Despite robust performance in several portfolio areas, the decline in Paxlovid sales raises questions about the sustainability of Pfizer’s growth as the market for COVID-19-related therapeutics matures. As the global focus shifts away from the pandemic, Pfizer must navigate an evolving landscape while remaining committed to its research into new treatment avenues, including cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, even after discontinuing specific developmental projects like danuglipron, an oral agent intended for obesity management.

Conclusion

Pfizer’s recent financial results highlight the juxtaposition of strong operational efficiency against powerful market changes. While the company remains cautious amid declining Paxlovid sales, its diversified product offerings and commitment to cost management may bolster its performance moving forward, as it seeks opportunities for growth in new and existing therapeutic areas. Investors and analysts will be closely watching how Pfizer adapts to these dynamic market conditions in the coming years.