How Novo Nordisk Lost Its Dominance in the Obesity Drug Market
In 2023, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk was heralded as the most valuable company in Europe, primarily due to the remarkable demand for its diabetes and weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. However, as of 2025, the company’s grip on the burgeoning anti-obesity market it established has significantly weakened. Factors such as production errors, an inadequate rollout of Wegovy, and the emergence of a formidable rival in Eli Lilly have contributed to this decline.
The Rise and Fall of Novo Nordisk’s Market Share
Initially, Novo Nordisk appeared to lead a market with projections estimating annual sales could reach as high as $150 billion. However, its recent struggles raise concerns about its once-unassailable position. In response to these challenges, the company’s controlling shareholder recently ousted CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. While Novo Nordisk continues to generate substantial revenue from Ozempic and Wegovy, it has already seen a staggering 50% decline in its stock over the past year.
Missteps and Underestimations
Industry analysts point to a series of miscalculations that allowed rivals to close the gap. For instance, Novo Nordisk underestimated the demand for Wegovy, initially preparing for a limited launch based on the tepid sales performance of its earlier weight-loss drug, Saxenda. The company assumed Wegovy would encounter similar reception; however, it took just five weeks for its prescription rate to outpace Saxenda’s five-year record.
Consequently, the company resorted to limiting new patient prescriptions, an undesirable tactic for any drugmaker looking to capitalize on a new product’s potential. Unfortunately, these shortages facilitated opportunities for competitors, with special pharmacies entering the market with lower-cost, compounded versions of the semaglutide drug.
Entry of Eli Lilly
As Novo Nordisk grappled with supply shortages, its U.S. rival, Eli Lilly, seized the opportunity to forge ahead. Lilly introduced Mounjaro for diabetes in 2022 and later rolled out Zepbound, a weight-loss version in 2023. Clinical trials have indicated that Zepbound results in weight loss exceeding 20% of body weight, eclipsing statistics for Wegovy. Despite also facing shortages, Lilly’s nimble strategy allowed it to recover much more rapidly than Novo Nordisk.
Presently, U.S. prescriptions for Zepbound have outstripped those for Wegovy, while Mounjaro is quickly closing in on Ozempic. This shift underscores how quickly market dynamics can change, especially when a competitor adopts an impatient, proactive strategy.
Research and Development Setbacks
In addition to production and marketing woes, Novo Nordisk has struggled with its research and development initiatives. Although Eli Lilly has made significant strides in R&D with promising trials for two new experimental drugs, including a pill version for those averse to injections, Novo Nordisk has faced disappointments of its own.
An underwhelming outcome from a clinical trial for its combination drug, CagriSema, resulted in a sharp 20% drop in shares, costing nearly $100 billion in market capitalization. Following these setbacks, certain analysts have revised their sales forecasts downwards, further complicating the company’s path to recovery.
Strategic Marketing Errors
On the marketing front, Eli Lilly has also outmaneuvered Novo Nordisk. The former was the first to launch a direct-to-consumer online service selling weight-loss drugs at discounted prices, specifically targeting consumers without insurance coverage. Though Novo Nordisk eventually made similar moves, they lagged behind Lilly, which diminished their effectiveness.
Looking Ahead: Can Novo Nordisk Rally?
While Novo Nordisk faces an uphill battle, it retains the potential to revitalize its market position. Industry experts suggest that an aggressive approach towards CagriSema, despite its underperformance, could facilitate renewed interest, alongside the introduction of new drugs that address various segments of the expanding obesity treatment market.
More recently, the company has begun exhibiting signs of a more assertive approach. A significant partnership with CVS aims to make Wegovy the preferred weight-loss drug for CVS drug-benefit plan members.
The Tug of War Within Novo Nordisk
However, company insiders comment on the longstanding conflict between those driven by corporate values — prioritizing public health over profit – versus business executives focused on revenue maximization. Moving forward, it remains to be seen whether Novo Nordisk can strike a more business-centric direction in its next CEO, now that Jørgensen is on the way out, with his predecessor, Lars Rebien Sørensen, assuming a new role on the company’s board.
In conclusion, Novo Nordisk stands at a crossroads. To reclaim its leadership in an increasingly competitive landscape, the company must recalibrate its strategies, fostering speed and adaptability to combat emerging threats from aggressive competitors like Eli Lilly.